|SPACETIME CONSTRAINTS ON EARTHQUAKE PREDICTABILITY
- A 10 cm/sec "domino effect" typical of every fracture phenomenon -
Giovanni P. GREGORI
IEVPC - International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center, http://ievpc.org/index.html
ICES - International Centre for Earth's Sciences
A spacetime self-similarity is observed in fracture phenomena that affect different given physical systems, from crustal stress propagation on the continental scale through a steel bar < 1 m long. The physical explanation is in terms of a "domino effect" propagation of fracture phenomena, through every kind of solid medium at a typical constant speed of 10 cm/year, independent of the specific material and composition the physical system of concern. In addition, also stress propagation through Earth's crust seems to occur only along linear tracks (i.e. it is not a 2D phenomenon). This laws,
owing to a strict matter of principle, implies specific constraints on earthquake forecasting. Volcanic hazard has substantially different and simpler operational concerns. This law can also be extrapolated, and e.g. it can be a effective way to estimate the extension of the linear front of a landslide. In addition, in the case of a monitoring of medium with a time resolution of 1 nsec it appears that it is likely possible to monitor micro-flaws of a size of only very few atoms.
This can result very useful in order to monitor e.g. the microphysical behavior of metal alloys or of any other composite material, or to check the purity of a metal or other materials, etc.
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